(The following contents from open source securities "In -depth Report in the Coal Industry: Overseas Coal Series 2: Russia, Analysis of Russian Coal Flow of Russia" Research Research Annex of the Attachment) Russian coal resource reserves are abundant, but the output scale is relatively stable
As of 2020, Russian coal proven reserves were 162.2 billion tons, ranking second in the world, and about 75.9%of the reserves of lignite+general tobacco coal.From 2018-2023, Russia’s coal production CAGR was -0.1%. From January to April 2024, Russian coal and lignite production cumulatively 144 million tons, only 0.3%over the same period last year.According to the "Russian Federal Federation of Coal Industry Development Plan for 2035" signed by the Russian Prime Minister in 2020, the Russian coal mining plan planned from 439 million tons in 2018 to 485 million tons in 2035 (CAGR was 0.6%), combined with the current Russian coal coalThe level of output, between 2023 and 2035, Russian coal production CAGR needs to reach 1%, and the output improvement target or difficulty to achieve according to the plan.
The focus of the Russian coal exports has turned to Asia PacificNew Delhi Stock Exchange. The exports have fallen in 2024 or have become a trend.
In recent years, the consumption of coal consumption in Russia has declined. From 2012-2022, Russian coal consumption CAGR was -2.5%Kolkata Wealth Management. With the relatively stable production of Russian coal production, Russian coal production may be disappeared mainly through exports.With the rapid advancement of European countries, the exports of Russia have gradually shifted from Europe to India and India. In 2022, Russian coal exports to India accounted for 33.4%.India’s proportion also increased significantly from 2.8%in 2021 to 6.9%.Since 2024, Russia’s supply on the international coal market has declinedKolkata Investment. From January to May 2024, Russia’s coal exports were 81 million tons, a year-on-year-10.6%;From January to May India-11.5%year-on-year, India’s imported Russian coal accounted for from 21.5%in 2023 to 17.6%.
"Quantity-Valentine": The number of Russian coal imported in India may be difficult to increase
Coal production: Although Russian coal production has been restored since 2021, the rebound has not been expected. From January to April 2024, Russian coal production was 144 million tons, only+0.35%year-on-year.Or the main reason for the incremental production of coal production, and in recent years, the production structure of Russia’s coal species in Russia is stable. It is expected that the number of coal types of Russia exports will also remain stable; railway capacity: 2023 Russian railway coal loading and transportation volume has accumulated 350 million tons, Year-on-year-1.2%, the railway shipped 180 million tons of coal to the port, of which 94.2 million tons of coal exported from the Far East Port, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and 55.8 million tons of coal exported through the Northwest port, an increase of 4.5%year-on-year.10,000 tons, the increase in goods from the Russian Railway to the Far East Port is relatively small, or the result of restrictions on the capacity of the eastern Russia, it also shows that the export of Russia coal to India such as India is short -term or difficult to increase;Russia -Africa coking coal and coking coal proportion will increase. In the future, India’s import demand is expected to continue to grow. With the limited coal capacity of Russia, India will diverge more Russian coal export share, especially the diversion effect of coking coal;Export price: Since October 1, 2023, the Russian coal export tariff policy has changed several times. The increase in import costs caused by coal export tariffs will also further suppress importers’ willingness to import.
Investment suggestions: Russian coal exports are difficult to increase, high -dividend and cyclical elasticity dual logic
At present, Russia’s domestic coal production and consumption is relatively stable, and it is expected that the export volume of Russia will not be significantly changed in the future.As the second largest source of imported Indian coal, although the focus of Russia’s exports has accelerated to the Asia -Pacific region in recent years, in view of Russia’s output release lack of elasticity, the capacity of the Eastern railway is close to the upper limit, Indian coal, especially coking coal demand, has increased.Factors such as the decline in diversion effects and decline in price competitiveness caused by Russian coal export tariffs are expected to maintain previous high -speed growth in India’s imported Russia coal in the future.At present, domestic coal supply is tightering under the security supervision policy, and the continuous development of the stable growth policy is expected to further increase the demand for coal. It is expected that domestic coal prices will operate high at a high level, and the high dividends and cyclical elasticity of coal are expected to resonate.Multi -dimensional selection of coal stocks will obtain excess returns: First, the elasticity of power coal elasticity, recommend [Shanmei International, Guanghui Energy, Jin Control Coal Industry, Yanyu Energy]Bombing; the second is the elasticity of coking coal -to -coke coal, which is recommended [Lai’an Environmental Energy, Ping Coal Shares, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal], the periodic attributes and the bottom of the beneficiary price rebound; the third is the target of the stable income of power coal.[Shaanxi Coal Industry], which has benefited from the bid, has a large proportion of the annual long -term cooperation, the dividend rate is stable and continuous; the fourth is the integration of power coal and coal power and high dividend period.The overall performance is weakened to the price sensitivity of coal; the fifth is the elastic target of small coal types (spray coal and smoke -free coal).[Gansu Energy] with convertible bonds.
Risk reminder: major changes in the international coal supply and demand situation; economic growth rate risks; risks caused by mismatches of supply and demand; renewable energy accelerated alternative risks.Indore Investment
Nagpur Investment