Source: Snowball APP, Author: Mavk-Zhang, (
1. Account return
The 3 -month yield of 3 months this year is: 21.56%, and 19.33%.
In January of January, the yield was -1.32%, the yield in February was 12.99%, and the yield in March was 9.89%.
Overall feels good, better than February, but did not do it 4 months before the stability of the investment framework, and defeated 98.54%of the shareholders of Ping An’s account. It was 99.3%in several months at the end of last year.The main reason is that the position is too scattered. When the copper trend is predicted, the position is not heavy enough.For specific reasons, see the summary analysis of the later month.
2. Current position
The coal, electricity, copper industry, out -of -sea (CPO, server, etc.), refrigerant, and old -age medicines that are regulated at the beginning of the year are mainly rotated.
At present, heavy warehouses are in the two industries of copper industry and power. Compared with the sharp reduction of coal holding positions in January and February, the copper industry and power -related stocks have been added.
See the logic analysis of 6 major industries: this year is worth investing in 6 major industries
Full warehouses have certain financing.Heavy warehouse Luoyang tears, three stocks.followed by ,,.There have been some changes in the heavy positions in February, which has been greatly reduced, coal stocks, and the liquidation of Luoyang’s tears and Juhua shares were added.$ Juhua (SH600160) $, $ Tibet Mining (SZ000408) $, $ Luoyang molybdenum (SH603993) $
The following is a screenshot of the small position in February:
Its position distribution industry and individual stocks are as follows:
1. Copper 32%
Holding ,, Luoyang Mining, 5 stocks, the weight of the weight is Luoyang Mining and Tibet Mining.
At present, the increase in several copper stocks far exceeds personal expectations, and it was thought that Zijin had increased by 30%this year.However, the annual report came out, and the performance and dividend were better than expected. In addition, the recent expected copper prices will continue to rise, supply and demand is tight, and India has begun to grab copper global.The holding of the shares will not be moved, if it rises by about 20%, it will be reduced.
Investment strategy logic in the copper industry, I wrote 2 long articles this year this this year:
1. {Copper production growth, which are worth investing in?} (The number of visits is about 350,000)
2. {Copper is worth investing this year and next year, and which are three -click conditions?} (Visits of about 176,000)
2. 25% of electricity
Currently holding ,,,,5 stocks.Among them, Inner Mongolia Huadian is one of the current heavy positions.
In March, the position was appropriately reduced by about 20%, and the position was added to the middle. It mainly felt that the growth of wind power would be better.The first quarter report is reported to the dynamic adjustment according to the performance.
This month, two new positions are built, which is mainly optimistic about the growth rate of production in 24 and 25 years, and it is optimistic about its growth.Among them, Shaanxi Energy is completely copying the big V@Super Lu Dinggong’s homework, and thank you.
At present, the increase in several power stocks has been relatively reasonable. I feel that it is relatively reasonable. The increase is about 3 points worse than expected. It is estimated that the main reason is that the coal stocks have fallen more recently.Focus on the performance of the first quarter report.In April, some stocks may be reduced to stocks that fell more in artificial intelligence in the sea.
Investment strategy logic in the power industry, I wrote 2 long articles this year this this year:
1. {Electric Power Artificial Intelligence Resource base!What are worth investing in this year and next year?} (The number of visits is about 230,000)
2. {Preliminary analysis of the warehouse} (more than 400,000 visits)
3. Refrigerator 10%
At present, holding two stocks is a position built in March. The refrigerant has focused on the focus since October last year. He has been hesitating to build a position and missed more than 30%of Juhua’s stock.
Investment strategy logic of the refrigerant industry, I wrote 1 long article this year:
{Refrigerator this year’s investment strategy analysis} (more than 600,000 visits)
At present, the positions will not be held, and the follow -up price and performance will be treated dynamically.
4. Go to sea -equipment, consumption, artificial intelligence computing power, about 15%of the position
At present, it holds the equipment of the sea, and 5 stocks, including Zheng coal machines, Gold Cup Electrician, and Yongxin shares for several months.
1),,, is that I especially like good performance, high dividends, underestimation, and good stocks with certain growth.Zheng Coal Machine took a few months of profit, and reduced its position twice when it fell. After the annual report the day before yesterday, a 20%position was added yesterday.
2) The two stocks of PCB in the new computing power this week, see the relevant articles in detail logic.
Investment strategy logic in the industry (including computing power) industry, I wrote 2 long articles this year:
1. {Currently holding the equipment of Zhengmei Equipment, which is worth investing in this year and next year?} (65,000 visits)
2. {Artificial Intelligence’s Computing Power -PCB -Investment Opportunities in 2024} (Visits of 25,000)
Holding low valuation, high dividends, stable operations, and have a certain growth of Hong Kong affairs, traditional coal, computing power, medicine, and coal.The specific stocks are, Runze shares.
3. This month’s operation
1. Significant reduction of coal stocks
Clearing CNPC and Huaibei shares, it has reduced its position sharply.Compared with the timely reducing positions, when China coal rose by 25%in February, more than 50%was reduced.The price of coking coal has been overcast, and Shanxi’s policy security control volume. Recent annual report dividends and performance are lower than expectedSurat Wealth Management. Obviously, murder and killing expectations are obvious.
There are currently only a few positions.After the performance is stable and the price is stable, then intervene.
2. Significantly increase the stocks related to the copper
1) After the annual report of Luoyang’s tears, it added about 30%the next day.
2) New Tongling stock position.
3. Newly built 2 stocks:,
4. Speed up artificial intelligence in the computing power to build positions, hold:, Runze shares
5. Another small account built three new Hong Kong stocks
H (I shouted last year and did not buy it for a year), (I built a small position in February)
4. Investment summary analysis this month
1. High throwing and low suction: When the coal rises too much, when the price drops, it will be reduced or even cleared in time.
2. Industry rotation: Multiple industries in stocks are to increase risks and profit probability of risk and profitability in order to increase the industries that are much more rising in time.
3. Increase the position: After Luoyang’s annual report of the tears of tears, it added more than 30%of the position.
4. Dare to add positions during the decline: After analyzing the computing PCB industry chain, it built a position on Wednesday and had nearly 4 points of profit.
Not good aspect:
1.: In March, coal -related stocks fell more. It was thought that the performance of Zheng coal machine could be affected. On the basis of February, more than 30%of the positions were reduced, resulting in the profitability of Zheng coal machines this year;
2. It is predicted that copper, tin, aluminum and other resource cycles are large, but copper -related warehouses are not heavy enough.
5. Investment plan next month
1. It is still based on the power, copper industry, out -of -sea (CPO, server), refrigerant, and senile medicine that are regulated at the beginning of the year.To.
In April, it will focus on investment in the following industry
1) Refrigerator will be tracked again
2) CPO, server, PCB, and storage in artificial intelligence computing power to find an underestimation and decline in storage, pay special attention to safety.Do not take a high level at a high level.There are more opportunities to fall.
3. Increase the research of resource stocks. With this great cycle of the artificial intelligence industry, the major cycle of commodities will be produced, which is in line with Zhou Jinsao’s Kangbo.Will take the opportunity to build a good stock such as categorian aluminum, tin, etc.
————————————— Life is relying on Kangbo ———————————
The logic of stock selection is as follows
1. The fundamentals are stable: PE is below 10, and excellent stocks will never exceed 30, such as Yangtze River Power.PB is the best below 1.5.In addition to low valuations, there is also a continuous stable dividend. It is best to be more than 40 %, and the dividend rate is more than 4 %.The borrowing liability ratio is low, and the cash flow is sufficient.Hydropower, coal, highway, and traditional coal passing.
2. The supply -side reform is sufficient, and the industry will be fully competitive: the track and popular stocks are investable in the early days of the industry. After the initial stage, there are many entrants. The competition is extremely fierce.Like last March, I also bought some CPO computing power, which rose more than doubled in August.Like the photovoltaic and lithium mines in recent years, electric vehicles and robots last year are no exception.When fully competing for a large number of deaths, the majority of enterprises have seriously cleared the losses, and the stocks have fallen to a very low position. A few companies have survived and profitable, and they can enter after the price is stable.The coal industry has also undergone this cycle and is now worth investing.Pune Stock
3. It has certain monopoly and sustainability: the performance price is steady and slow, such as charcoal, highways, water services, etc.There are few participants in competition, and there is no need to have a price war through bidding, such as photovoltaic, medicine, and traditional software, and fight for you to die.
4. It has a certain growth and is worthy of re -investment: the specific performance is rising in the steady price, and the production of product production has grown rapidly. Today, thermal power has this characteristic that it is worth investing in last year, such as Inner Mongolia China Electricity and Guodian Power.China Coal Co., Ltd., China Coal Co., Ltd., Tibet Mining, has increased its market value to increase its market value under the condition of stable prices.
5. High throwing and low suction, never changing, never greedy, only earn cheap and underestimated money: only find the cheapest, minimum and relatively strong stocks in various industries.The Hengyuan Coal Electric, which started to be held in March last year, has risen the best in coal. At the end of last year, the coal international, Ya’an environment, and Shanxi coking coal also increased by more than 20%.Position.Add to cheaper and potential Chinese coal energy and Huayang shares.
6. Choose the industry from top to bottom and trend
After the epidemic liberalized last year, the macro -high road traffic is a good industry with a strong certainty. During driving, there will be more and more car buyers.
After American artificial intelligence fire, the trend of walking is that you do not encounter a chance for a century, you can re -enter the general direction.At the end of March last year, the funds participated in the CPO investment, which increased a lot.
The state -owned enterprise assessment from last week is also a good opportunity to do multiple state -owned enterprises this year.
The power tolerance policy at the end of last year was worthy of investing in the foundation of thermal power, coal the true, and stability. Thermal power was worth investing this year.
7. Reasonable valuation, stay away from high -valuation companies, leave sufficient security margins, and try not to lose money.As Oak Capital Chairman Howard Max said in the book "The Most Important Investment": "No matter how good the buying costs are, it will inevitably endure the process of going to the bubble for a long time." Once overestimatedThe stock profit does not meet the expectations, and it may be broken.
8. Standards for returns: Based on dividend income+profit growth income, valuation regression is judged as a market environment.The annual increase exceeds the "profit growth income" to be correspondingly reduced.———— Recently, coal has a bit of valuation return.
9. Try to choose the white horse faucet in various industries.
10. When the market is not good or profitable, the total funds can be divided into two halves, 70%buy more stocks, and 30%buy debt (such as the national debt ETF, the currency fund "Yinhua Nikko".The age is dynamically adjusted).When the bottom of the bear market, add position.
When the market is sluggish, when the company underestimates, it will hold as many shares as possible, and appropriately add a certain amount of leverage.When the market rose high, we gradually reduced positions to reduce the shareholding ratio.
Taking the received dividends and work income as your own cash flow, it constitutes its own profit and cash flow system.
@I will not choose stocks in 2019 well, and it is worth paying attention to learning.
This year is optimistic about the industry, stock logic logic
1. With sufficient reform of the supply side, the price of coal will run steadily
2. With advantageous resources and some incremental coal stocks, the business has a certain growth, such as China Coal and Huayang;
3. Last year, in order to protect the supply, security accidents were much more than 22 years.Safety will only become stricter and stricter, and the less mining industry will only be accelerated to clearly clear;
4. The rapid economic development of some countries such as India, Vietnam, etc., and the demand for coal will increase;
5. The coal industry is basically state -owned enterprises. The assessment policies for state -owned enterprises earned earlier this year are conducive to increasing dividends and improving performance.
6, high dividends, sufficient cash flow, low valuation, less investment, fundamental advantages.
2. Power: Hydropower, thermal power and new energy power generation
1. Hydropower: The most stable industry in operation, the SDIC, the Yangtze River, etc. have a certain steady growth.This year’s hydropower will be better than last year;
2. Issuing thermal power and electricity policy;
3. The price of coal is stable to ensure stable thermal profit profits;
4. Nature power stocks are state -owned enterprises. The assessment policy of state -owned enterprises at the beginning of this year is conducive to state -owned enterprises to increase dividends and improve their performance.
5Nagpur Stock. In 20123, the forecast of electricity is huge and the growth rate of electricity is huge, and the industry reversal has been determined;
6. The price of photovoltaic components decreases, the cost of photovoltaic, wind power, and demand for new energy power generation have continued to increase by more than 20%;
7, computing power, large models (such as automatic generating videos), data centers, etc. are all electric tigers, which drives growth of electricity demand.
1. The proportion of new energy power terminal structure changes exceeding the expected demand for copper. This is the continuous growth of global copper demand under the energy revolution;
2. Emerging economies undertake industrial transfer, per capita income improvement and infrastructure construction demand for copper, which will generate the explosive demand of copper; domestic, India and even Southeast Asia and other large copper households.Matching, leading to a long -term existence of local shortage, under the asset shortage, "the essential metals that are lacking in economic powers will definitely skyrocket."
3. Demand demand for electricity reform, including India, Europe and other countries.like
On November 29, 2023, with the sustainable development of the renewable energy industry, the European Commission will formulate a plan with a scale of up to 584 billion euros (about 4.55 trillion yuan) to conduct comprehensive maintenance and upgrading of the European power grid in order to use it to upgrade to the European power grid.Copy more and more electricity brought by renewable energy.The field of power grid investment and construction has always been the largest industry. The grid transformation of the grid suddenly started in Europe is huge, and copper is the largest consumption metal.This is a new demand, especially the European energy issues brought by the Russian and Ukraine War. Under the power of power, Europe has a large number of new demand for copper in copper.
The "US Infrastructure Act" approved in 2022 has invested a lot of funds to upgrade and transform electricity infrastructure, electric vehicle infrastructure construction (charging piles), and water conservancy infrastructure such as lead water pipes. This requires a lot of copper.At the same time, on December 08, 2023, the United States Non -Agricultural Excellence was expected in November 08. The stock market rising for many years and economic growth have promoted the consumption of residents very strong. Some scholars have said that the so -called economic "soft landing" has appeared.Economic recession.Therefore, the United States’ demand for copper will not decrease significantly, and it will achieve a certain continuous increase.
Fourth, natural gas heavy card
1. Cost advantage, which leads to a large increase in
A natural gas vehicle (each year) can save 50,000 to 60,000 yuan. Although it costs more than 100,000 yuan to buy a car (1), considering the life life of at least five or six years, and the expectations of natural gas supply, a car is a car.Cars can save hundreds of thousands of costs for car owners.
2. Overseas market demand continues to increase
2023 heavy trucks overseas export sales were about 275,000 units, an increase of nearly 60%year -on -year, and export sales reached a record high.
After the HFCS quota scheme landed, the small varieties 143A and others were the first to rise due to tight inside quotas. The mainstream varieties R32, R125, and R134A rose one after another.At the beginning of the New Year, the prices of mainstream varieties have continuously increased the decline in hydrofluoric acid in raw materials, and the price difference at the bottom of the refrigerant price is upward.
At the same time, Juhua Co., Ltd. announced 51%of Feiyuan Chemical and launched the first shot of the policy landing industry. It is expected that there will be a leading enterprise to integrate and acquire small enterprises. The industry concentration will be further improved.The price performance is large, and the current market share of Juhua shares (including 51%of Fei Source for acquisitions), Sanmei Co., Ltd. (Sino -Blue Sky calculated by equity), Dongyue Group, Yonghe shares of the three -generation refrigerant market share are 34.4, respectively 34.4, respectively.%, 16%, 10.9%, 10.5%, 7.6%.According to the calculation of production quotas, the concentration of CR5 of mainstream varieties of R32, R134A, R125, and R143A is 87.4%, 92.0%, 85.2%, and 100%, respectively.
Since 4Q23, the price and price difference of each type of refrigerator have shown the bottom of the bottom.At the same time, the price of the second -generation refrigerant quota is changed before and after landing, and the characteristics of rising and falling are less. With the needs, the price center slowly moves up after the long cycle.Due to the high cost and patent restrictions, the four-generation refrigerant has not yet had the conditions for large-scale promotion, so the global mainstream refrigerant in 2024-2026 is still a three-generation refrigerant.
According to data from the industry online, from January to February 2024, the domestic air-conditioning layout increased by 15.5%to 28.32 million units from the same period last year. The peak season for air-conditioning production is generally March-May.The refrigerant is expected to show a trend of rising volume and price.
In the context of the slowdown of the domestic market growth, "going out of the sea" has become the few growth highlights in the market.For the first time, the concept of "going to sea" was the first time that the total market value of "Pinduoduo" at the end of last year surpassed Alibaba.There are two layers of market interpretation,
The first floor is the downgrade of consumption, and the other layer is that the domestic stock market cannot be involved in the future.The large macro background is very simple, that is, you can’t make money in China, you can only go to sea to grab money
1Guoabong Investment. The game’s short drama has been to the sea: In recent years, many companies have transformed into games. They have developed well abroad, such as Shenzhou Taiyue, Tongbao Technology, etc.;
2. Optical module: Last year, CPO -related stocks rose very well, and the 23 -year performance forecast growth rate of 23 years of performance in the middle of the middle of the intercourse was prominent;
3. Electric equipment: related companies with the ability to go to sea: Shenma Co., Ltd., Huaming Equipment, Siyuan Electric, Samsung Medical, Jinpan Technology, Haixing Power, etc.
4. Douyin, e -commerce goes out of the sea
7. Elderly Chinese medicine
Olderization has always been optimistic, but has not been found to be a suitable target, and can only vote on the probability of profit.
The logic is as follows:
1. The country attaches importance
In recent years, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have attached great importance to the development of the Chinese medicine industry, and have introduced many policies to develop the traditional Chinese medicine industry.The development of traditional Chinese medicine is not only the development of medicine, but also the culture of inheritance of India.
2. The aging population will become more and more prominent in the future, coupled with the improvement of modern people’s health awareness, superimposed medical reform and traditional Chinese medicine support policies, and the prosperity of the Chinese medicine industry is going up.
India’s population aging is irreversible. After 20-30 years, there will be 400 million elderly people over 60 years old, and the demand is growing.There are many chronic diseases for the elderly, and the demand growth of traditional Chinese medicine is strong.Twenty years later, the consumption level of the elderly is much stronger than now.
3. The effect of collecting compared to western medicine is not so great, and the treatment of some major diseases, the unit price of traditional Chinese medicine is lower.You can even not enter the medical insurance, and the patient can consume;
4. I see a lot of underestimation at the current stage. Compared with some consumer goods, the valuation of Chinese medicine is lower and more investment valueGuoabong Stock
From September to the present, the monthly profit and loss of the above logic are as follows:
2023.9: + 5.4%, Run Win the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 5.7%
2023.10: -2.57%, Running to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 0.38%
2023.11: +10.05%, running the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 9.69%
2023.12: +4.44%, Running the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 6.25%
2024.1: -1.32%: Running to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 4.95%.
2024.2: 12.99%: Running the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 4.44%.
2024.3: 9.89%.:
From 2023.9-2024.3, a total of 40.93%of 7 months.
If you always learn from successful people, you can become stronger:
We must not learn to build a car behind closed doors, we must learn from our predecessors.It has been more than 200 years since the birth of the capital market. In these more than two hundred years, countless people have proved to you what kind of method is effective for a long time through their actual combat experience. At this time, why not stand in the giant’s giant’s giant’sPicking apples on your shoulders, do not want to do a set of yourself.
The most expensive cost, risk, and poison in investment are to accompany your own principal to try and error with the methodology that has not been verified.They thought that their methods were superior, but the logic could not be confronted.
1. Inner Mongolia Huadian, on the snowball @1 1 1, @Bruce-Lim related articles can be referenced by reference;
2. Tibetan mining, the snowball @2 2 2 has been studied deeply. I have written a lot of good articles for reference to study.
3. Zhengmei machine, you can find some research reports to study carefully.
4. Zijin Mining,@4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4.
5. Yongxin Co., Ltd., the snowball on the heaven and earth shadow focuses on.
1. Learn to wait and keep cash
Most of the time the market will fluctuate significantly irrationality, and the frequency and amplitude are beyond imagination.At this time you have enough patience to wait until the price is more like.The market will reward the patience virtue.Often novices are always afraid of missing opportunities, but the casino keeps opening the door. How can there be no chance?You lost before the opportunity came.
The rise and retaining some cash, the market is not good or the shares have appeared to be clear as soon as possible, which are active and effective investment methods.
In the first half of last year, I have been littering. Although I holding a few stocks of CPOs rose well, I dare not dare to heavy positions too hype.In the second half of the year, I did not forget the original intention and the center of gravity to sort out 18 years after entering the city’s initial decline. I found that I have gone to some crooked roads in the past two years.After the investment style of the beginning of the heart is fixed, the second half of last year has been heavy positions last year, and even underestimated the stock and added a certain leverage.
2. Diligent in summary, learn lessons in failure
Develop regular recovery habits, summarize experience and lessons.
Persist in writing the process of each transaction and the logic of participation and exit.
3. Pay attention to market trends, industry dynamics
After the industry news comes out, it should be cleared in time to stop loss in time.Investors should not be iron heads, they should be a slippery head.No matter how the situation changes, it is stupid to adhere to your original judgment.
After the anti -corruption of medicine in September last year, there was no timely stop loss.
4. Focus on risk management at all times and risk awareness
Risk management penetrate consciousness, systems, and discipline, not only on your must -make list, but also flowing in the blood of every investor.
Don’t want to get rich overnight.Go to the ground to walk a step by step.Investment is a lifetime, only to survive first.
5. Getting forward with the times, evolutionary learning
The stock market does not eat for a lifetime and must continue to study.Super Lu Dinggong and Liang Hongjin’s learning ability are very strong.
6. Survival thinking
First, try to ensure that you do n’t lose, then seek development in survival, and then survive and then seek development. The principle of “slow is fast”.
Jaipur Wealth Management
